Get ready for another wild one at Daytona

Autoracing Betting Lines

06/30/2010 - Daytona Beach, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: NASCAR Sprint Cup. Date: Saturday, July 3. Race: Coke Zero 400. Site: Daytona International Speedway. Track: 2.5-mile tri-oval. Start time: 7:30 p.m. (et). Laps: 160. Miles: 400. 2009 winner: Tony Stewart. Television: TNT. Radio: Motor Racing Network (MRN) /SIRIUS NASCAR Radio.

The next chapter in NASCAR's "boys, have at it" takes place this Fourth of July weekend when the Sprint Cup Series returns to Daytona International Speedway for its "mid-summer classic."

This year's 400-mile race at Daytona could very well be a classic...or perhaps a demolition derby.

With what we've seen in previous Sprint Cup races this season, particularly last week at Sonoma, CA, emotions are running high due to the level of aggression on the track.

At this time of the year, it certainly is hot and humid in Central Florida, so don't be surprised if tempers flare in the garage or on pit road before DIS begins its big post-race fireworks show over Lake Lloyd.

"If you're going to take someone out or wrong someone on track, you've got to be ready for the same thing down the road and the points and what's going to come back to you," said Jimmie Johnson, who has won the last two races. "It's awfully exciting. There's plenty to write about and talk about right now."

This will be the third of four restrictor plate races this season. With the Sprint Cup car now running a spoiler and having a slightly different aerodynamic package than the car used for the Daytona 500 in February, and then factor in a larger restrictor plate hole size -- 1 1/32 inch -- Saturday night's race at Daytona should be a thriller.

"With the bigger plate and with the spoiler on the car, the cars are going to pull up faster than they did before, that's for sure," current points leader Kevin Harvick said. "We saw it was a lot faster at the Daytona 500, and now we have a bigger plate. It will be exciting, and you will see a lot of cars passing and moving and going and doing what they did at the Daytona 500, just a little faster."

Harvick's most recent win came in April at Talladega. He also won the pre- season Budweiser Shootout at Daytona.

This race at Daytona also will be the last one before the entire 2.5-mile track surface will be repaved. Daytona last underwent a repaving in 1978.

Earlier this year, the Daytona 500 was marred by two sizeable potholes that emerged on the asphalt between turns one and two just past the half-way point in the race. NASCAR halted the Daytona 500 twice for a total of two and a half hours, as track personnel repaired the potholes.

Additional repairs were made to the damaged area of the track days after the Daytona 500.

"I wasn't real pleased at all to hear that the racetrack was going to have to be repaved, but the time has just taken its toll on the racetrack and some things you just have to do," Harvick said. "I don't think anybody would repave the racetrack if it just didn't absolutely have to be done.

"I feel pretty confident with everything that everybody said from the racetrack that the repairs are good and have tested the Nationwide car there, with the new patch in the corner. Couldn't even tell it was there."

Harvick was one of 26 drivers who participated in last month's two-day test session of the new Nationwide Series car, which makes its debut in Friday night's 250-mile race at Daytona.

With nine races remaining before the championship Chase begins September 19 at New Hampshire, the Chase bubble is tightening up. Dale Earnhardt Jr. is just three points behind 12th-place Carl Edwards. Ryan Newman is 15 points outside the top-12, and Clint Bowyer is only one marker behind Newman.

"There are a lot of guys fighting for that spot," Edwards said. "I think I can safely say that this is going be one of the toughest years to make that Chase that we've had."

Earnhardt Jr. has finished 11th or better in the last three races, while Edwards has finished no better than 12th since five races ago at Dover.

Jamie McMurray, currently 17th in points, has won two of the last three restrictor plate races. McMurray won at Talladega in November when he drove for Roush Fenway Racing. His Daytona 500 victory earlier this year came in his first race with Earnhardt-Ganassi Racing.

"It will be cool to get back to Daytona and just to see that track again," McMurray said. "Certainly leaving there after winning the 500, it is crazy what you are going through."

McMurray will try to become the first driver to win both races at Daytona in the same season since Bobby Allison accomplished the feat in 1982. McMurray won the July race at Daytona in 2007.

Forty-five teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Coke Zero 400.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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